{"mode":"model","updated_at":"2026-11-12T06:51:49.464Z","probabilities":{"raw_24h":0.17885865975559923,"raw_48h":0.32572689934162924,"rounded_24h":52,"rounded_48h":77,"model_24h":18,"model_48h":33,"baseline_cap_24h":46,"baseline_cap_48h":71,"tease_tier":"T2","tease_floor_24h":52,"tease_floor_48h":77,"commitment":null,"commitment_floor_percent":null,"signal_percent":null,"range_24h":{"lower":0.095,"upper":0.312},"range_48h":{"lower":0.209,"upper":0.469}},"signal_score":null,"confidence":"low","confidence_note":"Experimental: walk-forward backtest has not beaten both baselines yet.","last_reset_at":"2026-10-28T06:35:38.000Z","age_days":15,"official_signal":null,"teased_window":null,"time_window":{"start_hour":4,"end_hour":7,"label":"4 AM - 7 AM","timezone":"UTC"},"cadence":{"recent_median_days":2.4,"recent_sample":5,"weighted_mean_days":4.8,"accelerating":true},"tease_signal":{"tier":"T2","post":{"id":"2120410480204525936","at":"2026-11-11T06:57:08.000Z","at_label":"Nov 11, 06:57 UTC","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2120410480204525936","quote":"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset."},"floor_24h":52,"floor_48h":77,"expires_at":"2026-11-13T18:57:08.000Z","external_watch":true},"tease_card_note":{"en":"counted · 52% in 24h · 77% in 48h","zh":"已计入 · 24h 52% · 48h 77%","ja":"反映済み · 24h 52% · 48h 77%","es":"contabilizado · 52% en 24 h · 77% en 48 h"},"tease_post_age":{"en":"24h ago","zh":"24小时前","ja":"24時間前","es":"hace 24 h"},"latest_hint":{"id":"2120410480204525936","at":"2026-11-11T06:57:08.000Z","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2120410480204525936","quote":"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.","day":"today"},"hint_copy":{"en":"👀 Tibo, last 7 days: a hint on Nov 11 — \"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.\". Not a confirmed promise; the number above does not change for it.","zh":"👀 Tibo 近 7 天：11 月 11 日有一条暗示——\"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.\"。不是明确承诺，上面的概率不因它改变。","ja":"👀 Tibo 直近 7 日：11月11日にほのめかし —「Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.」。確定した約束ではなく、上の確率はこれで変わりません。","es":"👀 Tibo, últimos 7 días: una insinuación el 11 de nov — \"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.\". No es una promesa confirmada; el número de arriba no cambia por ello."},"context":{"window_days":7,"since":"2026-11-05T06:51:49.464Z","evidence_ids":["2120410480204525936","2120410006273380750"],"effect":"display_floor","multiplier":1,"negative_supported":false,"state":"TEASE","primary_post":{"id":"2120410480204525936","at":"2026-11-11T06:57:08.000Z","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2120410480204525936","quote":"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.","signal":"TEASE"},"floor_24h":52,"floor_48h":77},"context_copy":{"en":"👀 Tibo, last 7 days: a hint on Nov 11 — \"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.\" — and an independent tracker is watching the same post. Counted: 52% in 24h, 77% in 48h — a floor on the displayed number, not the historical base rate. It lapses 60h after the post, or the moment a reset lands.","zh":"👀 Tibo 近 7 天：11 月 11 日有一条暗示——\"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.\"——另有一家独立追踪器也在观察同一条。已计入：24 小时 52%、48 小时 77%——这是展示下限，不是历史基准。发帖 60 小时后、或重置落地时回落。","ja":"👀 Tibo 直近 7 日：11月11日にほのめかし —「Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.」— 独立した別のトラッカーも同じ投稿を注視しています。反映済み：24時間 52%、48時間 77% — 表示上の下限であり、履歴の基準値ではありません。投稿から60時間後、またはリセット確認時に戻ります。","es":"👀 Tibo, últimos 7 días: una insinuación el 11 de nov — \"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset.\" — y otro rastreador independiente vigila la misma publicación. Contabilizada: 52% en 24 h, 77% en 48 h — un mínimo sobre el número mostrado, no la tasa histórica. Caduca 60 h después de la publicación, o en cuanto llegue un reset."},"wait_comparison":{"sample":8,"wait_days":15,"shorter_share":1,"median_days":3.3,"mean_days":3.9,"longest_days":8,"position":"longer_than_most","basis":"recent_completed_intervals","window_intervals":8,"sample_end_at":"2026-10-28T06:35:38.000Z"},"wait_copy":{"en":"You have waited 15 days; 100% of the latest 8 completed reset intervals were shorter. Typical wait 3.3 days, average 3.9, longest 8. Recent history, not a schedule. This historical baseline uses up to 8 completed intervals plus the ongoing wait. Ordinary posts and hints are not extra probability factors. Sample through 2026-10-28 06:35:38 UTC.","zh":"你已等了 15 天；最近 8 个完整重置间隔中，100% 短于当前等待。典型间隔 3.3 天，平均 3.9 天，最长 8 天。这是近期历史，不是倒计时。历史基准概率使用最近最多 8 个完整间隔和当前尚未结束的等待时间，普通推文和暗示未作为额外概率因子。样本截至 2026-10-28 06:35:38 UTC。","ja":"待ち始めて 15 日。直近 8 件の完了したリセット間隔の 100% は、現在の待ち時間より短いものでした。典型 3.3 日、平均 3.9 日、最長 8 日。直近の記録であり、予定表ではありません。履歴ベースの確率には直近最大 8 件の完了した間隔と現在の未完了の待ち時間を使います。通常の投稿や示唆は追加の確率要因に含めません。サンプルは 2026-10-28 06:35:38 UTC 時点。","es":"Llevas 15 días esperando; el 100 % de los últimos 8 intervalos completos entre reinicios fueron más cortos. Espera típica 3,3 días, media 3,9, la más larga 8. Es historia reciente, no un calendario. Esta probabilidad histórica base usa hasta 8 intervalos completos recientes y la espera actual sin terminar. Los mensajes habituales y las insinuaciones no son factores adicionales de probabilidad. Muestra hasta el 2026-10-28 06:35:38 UTC."},"wait_token":{"en":"wait 15d · last 8: 100% shorter","zh":"已等 15 天 · 近8次 100%更短","ja":"待ち15日 · 直近8件 100%が短い","es":"espera 15 d · últ. 8: 100% más cortas"},"model_token":{"en":"model 18% · 33%","zh":"模型 18% · 33%","ja":"モデル 18% · 33%","es":"modelo 18% · 33%"},"range_aria":{"en":{"h24":"Reset chance in the next 24 hours: 52%, range 10–31%","h48":"Reset chance by 48 hours: 77%, range 21–47%"},"zh":{"h24":"未来 24 小时重置概率：52%，区间 10–31%","h48":"48 小时内重置概率：77%，区间 21–47%"},"ja":{"h24":"今後 24 時間のリセット確率：52%、範囲 10–31%","h48":"48 時間以内のリセット確率：77%、範囲 21–47%"},"es":{"h24":"Probabilidad de reset en las próximas 24 horas: 52 %, rango 10–31 %","h48":"Probabilidad de reset en 48 horas: 77 %, rango 21–47 %"}},"milestone_watch":null,"evidence":[{"code":"recent_cadence","params":{"recent_median_days":2.4,"recent_sample":5,"weighted_mean_days":4.8},"label":"Recent cadence","detail":"a reset every ~2.4d across the last 5 (weighted mean 4.8d)","href":"/timeline"},{"code":"last_reset","params":{"date":"2026-10-28","age_days":15},"label":"Last reset","detail":"2026-10-28 (15d ago)","href":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115273253711409208"},{"code":"common_window","params":{"window_label":"4 AM - 7 AM","timezone":"UTC"},"label":"Most common window","detail":"4 AM - 7 AM in UTC","href":"/timeline"}],"model":{"version":"rate-v4","window_intervals":8,"half_life_days":60,"effective_sample_size":33.8,"base_daily_rate":0.179},"backtest":{"sample_size":368,"brier":0.126,"baseline_brier":0.127,"rate_v2_brier":0.125,"better_than_naive":true,"better_than_rate_v2":false,"status":"experimental"},"signal_tier":null,"alert_event_id":null,"latest_alert":{"id":"2115273253711409208","kind":"reset","state":"confirmed","source_at":"2026-10-28T06:35:38.000Z","summary":"Reset observed by operator.","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115273253711409208","score":null,"window":null,"corrected":true,"confirmation_source":"operator_observed","observed_at":"2026-10-28T06:35:38.000Z","observation_message":"Codex reset confirmed\nOur checks show that Codex usage limits reset around 06:35 UTC on Oct 28.","confirmed_at":null,"confirmation_url":null},"reset_outlook":{"version":"reset-opportunity-v1","scope":"global_or_new_banked","updated_at":"2026-11-12T06:51:49.464Z","mode":"teased","probabilities":{"raw_24h":0.2364807483893593,"raw_48h":0.41703835241992715,"model_24h":24,"model_48h":42,"rounded_24h":52,"rounded_48h":77,"baseline_cap_24h":46,"baseline_cap_48h":71,"commitment_floor_percent":null,"tease_tier":"T2","range_24h":{"lower":0.099,"upper":0.467},"range_48h":{"lower":0.224,"upper":0.639}},"display_signal":null,"last_opportunity":{"id":"grant:2117022101404096435","at":"2026-11-01T22:32:56.000Z","known_at":"2026-11-01T22:32:56.000Z","types":["banked"],"member_ids":["2117022101404096435"],"evidence":"reviewed_landing"},"pace":{"window_intervals":4,"sample":4,"completed_days":7.682581018518518,"waiting_days":10.346452129629629,"exposure_days":18.029033148148148,"days":4.507258287037037,"copy":{"en":{"value":"~4.5d","chip":"pace ≈ every 4.5d","hint":"last 4 gaps + waiting","detail":"Global or new banked reset. Pace = (last 4 completed gaps + ongoing wait) / completed-gap count. Not a schedule."},"zh":{"value":"~4.5d","chip":"近期节奏 ≈ 每 4.5 天","hint":"最近 4 个间隔＋当前等待","detail":"全局或新增存储重置。节奏＝（最近 4 个完整间隔总时长＋当前等待）÷完整间隔数，不是重置日程。"},"ja":{"value":"~4.5d","chip":"直近ペース 約4.5日ごと","hint":"直近4区間＋現在の待ち時間","detail":"全体リセットまたは新規バンク付与。ペース＝（直近4完了区間＋現在の待ち時間）÷完了区間数。予定表ではありません。"},"es":{"value":"~4,5d","chip":"ritmo ≈ cada 4,5 d","hint":"últ. 4 intervalos + espera","detail":"Reinicio global o nueva concesión guardada. Ritmo = (últimos 4 intervalos completos + espera actual) / intervalos completos. No es un calendario."}}},"time_window":{"start_hour":4,"end_hour":7,"label":"4 AM - 7 AM","timezone":"UTC","sample_size":16},"history_times_utc":["2026-09-29T18:53:14.000Z","2026-10-02T21:18:48.000Z","2026-10-07T03:35:09.000Z","2026-10-07T23:24:55.000Z","2026-10-11T04:01:09.000Z","2026-10-13T05:03:51.000Z","2026-10-15T06:13:01.000Z","2026-10-17T20:41:01.000Z","2026-10-20T06:33:48.000Z","2026-10-22T17:10:01.000Z","2026-10-23T17:40:51.000Z","2026-10-25T06:10:01.000Z","2026-10-26T06:08:46.000Z","2026-10-28T06:35:38.000Z","2026-10-31T19:59:29.000Z","2026-11-01T22:32:56.000Z"],"tease_signal":{"tier":"T2","post":{"id":"2120410480204525936","at":"2026-11-11T06:57:08.000Z","at_label":"Nov 11, 06:57 UTC","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2120410480204525936","quote":"Thursday is feeling codexy to me. Perhaps also a good time for a banked reset."},"floor_24h":52,"floor_48h":77,"expires_at":"2026-11-13T18:57:08.000Z","external_watch":true,"reset_type":"banked"},"tease_card_note":{"en":"Banked · counted · 52% in 24h · 77% in 48h","zh":"存储重置 · 已计入 · 24h 52% · 48h 77%","ja":"バンク · 反映済み · 24h 52% · 48h 77%","es":"Guardado · contabilizado · 52% en 24 h · 77% en 48 h"},"tease_post_age":{"en":"24h ago","zh":"24小时前","ja":"24時間前","es":"hace 24 h"},"model_token":{"en":"model 24% · 42%","zh":"模型 24% · 42%","ja":"モデル 24% · 42%","es":"modelo 24% · 42%"},"wait_comparison":{"sample":4,"wait_days":10.3,"shorter_share":1,"median_days":1.6,"mean_days":1.9,"longest_days":3.6,"position":"longer_than_most","window_intervals":4,"basis":"recent_joint_intervals_plus_wait","sample_end_at":"2026-11-01T22:32:56.000Z"},"wait_copy":{"en":"You have waited 10.3 days; 100% of the latest 4 completed reset intervals were shorter. Typical wait 1.6 days, average 1.9, longest 3.6. Recent history, not a schedule. This historical baseline uses up to 4 completed intervals plus the ongoing wait. Ordinary posts and hints are not extra probability factors. Sample through 2026-11-01 22:32:56 UTC.","zh":"你已等了 10.3 天；最近 4 个完整重置间隔中，100% 短于当前等待。典型间隔 1.6 天，平均 1.9 天，最长 3.6 天。这是近期历史，不是倒计时。历史基准概率使用最近最多 4 个完整间隔和当前尚未结束的等待时间，普通推文和暗示未作为额外概率因子。样本截至 2026-11-01 22:32:56 UTC。","ja":"待ち始めて 10.3 日。直近 4 件の完了したリセット間隔の 100% は、現在の待ち時間より短いものでした。典型 1.6 日、平均 1.9 日、最長 3.6 日。直近の記録であり、予定表ではありません。履歴ベースの確率には直近最大 4 件の完了した間隔と現在の未完了の待ち時間を使います。通常の投稿や示唆は追加の確率要因に含めません。サンプルは 2026-11-01 22:32:56 UTC 時点。","es":"Llevas 10,3 días esperando; el 100 % de los últimos 4 intervalos completos entre reinicios fueron más cortos. Espera típica 1,6 días, media 1,9, la más larga 3,6. Es historia reciente, no un calendario. Esta probabilidad histórica base usa hasta 4 intervalos completos recientes y la espera actual sin terminar. Los mensajes habituales y las insinuaciones no son factores adicionales de probabilidad. Muestra hasta el 2026-11-01 22:32:56 UTC."},"wait_token":{"en":"wait 10.3d · last 4: 100% shorter","zh":"已等 10.3 天 · 近4次 100%更短","ja":"待ち10.3日 · 直近4件 100%が短い","es":"espera 10,3 d · últ. 4: 100% más cortas"},"range_aria":{"en":{"h24":"Reset chance in the next 24 hours: 52%, range 10–47%","h48":"Reset chance by 48 hours: 77%, range 22–64%"},"zh":{"h24":"未来 24 小时重置概率：52%，区间 10–47%","h48":"48 小时内重置概率：77%，区间 22–64%"},"ja":{"h24":"今後 24 時間のリセット確率：52%、範囲 10–47%","h48":"48 時間以内のリセット確率：77%、範囲 22–64%"},"es":{"h24":"Probabilidad de reset en las próximas 24 horas: 52 %, rango 10–47 %","h48":"Probabilidad de reset en 48 horas: 77 %, rango 22–64 %"}},"copy":{"en":{"baseline":"Combined historical baseline","scope":"Global reset or a new banked reset — one combined outlook.","validation":"Experimental, low confidence. Daily UTC walk-forward scoring evaluates at least one event in each 24h/48h window, using only evidence known at prediction time. Live sample counts and both Brier scores are in /api/forecast → reset_outlook; historical coverage is incomplete."},"zh":{"baseline":"综合历史基准","scope":"全局重置或新增存储重置，统一计算一份展望。","validation":"实验性模型，置信度低。按 UTC 每日向前回测，分别评估 24/48 小时内至少发生一次，训练只使用当时已知证据。实时样本数和两组 Brier 分数见 /api/forecast 的 reset_outlook；历史覆盖仍不完整。"},"ja":{"baseline":"統合履歴の基準","scope":"全体リセット、または新しいバンク済みリセットの統合見通し。","validation":"実験段階、信頼度は低。UTC日次の時系列検証で24/48時間内に1回以上起きたかを評価し、当時既知の証拠だけを学習します。件数とBrier値は /api/forecast の reset_outlook。履歴の網羅性には限界があります。"},"es":{"baseline":"Base histórica conjunta","scope":"Reinicio global o un nuevo reinicio guardado: una perspectiva conjunta.","validation":"Experimental, confianza baja. La evaluación diaria UTC de 24/48 horas usa el resultado de al menos un evento y solo evidencia conocida al predecir. Muestras y Brier están en reset_outlook de /api/forecast. La cobertura histórica es incompleta."}},"confidence":"low","model":{"version":"joint-rate-v2","window_intervals":4,"basis":"recent_joint_intervals_plus_wait","effective_sample_size":5,"exposure_days":18.029033148148148},"backtest":{"h24":{"samples":35,"positives":12,"brier":0.232462,"baseline_brier":0.240214},"h48":{"samples":34,"positives":21,"brier":0.229803,"baseline_brier":0.256559},"baseline":"last_8_joint_rate","evaluation":"daily_utc_walk_forward","evidence_time_basis":"accepted_confirmation_or_observation_time","publication_availability_log":"incomplete","status":"experimental"},"history":{"excluded":[{"id":"2102463847714247142","reason":"no_verified_new_grant_landing"},{"id":"2097752790177370535","reason":"no_verified_new_grant_landing"},{"id":"2096035437299237298","reason":"no_verified_new_grant_landing"},{"id":"2095979536043401428","reason":"no_verified_new_grant_landing"},{"id":"2095651088502591861","reason":"no_verified_new_grant_landing"}],"coverage_start":"2026-09-29T18:53:14.000Z","coverage_end":"2026-11-12T06:51:49.464Z","coverage":"published_monitoring_era","gaps":[{"ids":["2067399435009622521","2071740419030053227"],"reason":"global-plus-banked round: accepted global counts once; no independent banked landing time"},{"ids":["2095651088502591861","2095979536043401428","2096035437299237298","2102463847714247142"],"reason":"banked announcement or arrival window; independent landing time unavailable"},{"ids":["2097752790177370535"],"reason":"make-good for earlier redemption; no verified new platform grant"}],"sample_size":16,"global":12,"banked":4,"excluded_earlier":52}}}